Events
Past Event
WED@NICO WEBINAR: Hope Michelson, The University of Illinois "Negative returns explain failure to exploit temporal arbitrage by small farmers in low income countries"
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
12:00 PM
Details
Speaker:
Hope Michelson, Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, The University of Illinois
Title:
Negative returns explain failure to exploit temporal arbitrage by small farmers in low income countries
Abstract:
We propose a new explanation for the frequently observed “sell low, buy high” behavior among small farmers in developing countries: a substantial probability of negative returns to storage. We use 20 years of data from 732 markets in 23 countries to demonstrate that the lean-season price (the “high-price” season) fails to rise above the harvest-season price (the “low-price” season) 28.6% of the time. We show that aversion to these negative returns can induce households to forgo storage. Widespread policies to encourage small farmer storage may not be beneficial in all contexts. Authors: Lila Cardell and Hope Michelson
Speaker Bio:
Hope Michelson is an associate professor of development economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) in the department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. She earned a PhD in applied economics from Cornell University, a MS in agricultural economics from UIUC, and a BA in literature and history from Georgetown University. She is a non-resident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Her research is at the intersection of development and agriculture. She focuses on small farmers in low income countries and on the relationships between agriculture, natural resources, markets, and household outcomes. She has a special interest in household poverty dynamics and food security at multiple spatial scales. Recent work has focused on small farmer market participation in low income countries: from transactions with traders in small local spot markets to small farmers contracting with multinationals including Walmart. Current projects are mostly in East and Southern Africa but she has also worked in Mexico, Nicaragua, and China.
Webinar:
Webinar link: https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/96241847919
Passcode: nico
About the Speaker Series:
Wednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems and data science. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-between.
Time
Wednesday, November 18, 2020 at 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Contact
Calendar
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
WED@NICO SEMINAR: Lightning Talks with NU Scholars!
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
12:00 PM
//
Lower Level, Chambers Hall
Details
May 20th Speakers:
Yulin Yu, Postdoctoral Fellow, Kellogg School of Management
Feihong Xu, PhD Candidate, McCormick School of Engineering
Maalvika Bhat, PhD Student, School of Communication
Rochana Chaturvedi, Postdoctoral Fellow, Kellogg School of Management
NICO Lightning talks are open to Northwestern graduate students, postdoctoral fellows, and visiting scholars! If you are interested in signing up for a future session, please fill out this short survey.
Talk Titles and Abstracts:
Yulin Yu
Postdoctoral Fellow
Kellogg School of Management &
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems
Human–AI Creative Pathways: How People and Machines Differ in Creative Strategy
Generative AI offers the promise of amplifying creativity by recombining knowledge at a scale far beyond human capacity, yet humans still hold key advantages in flexibility and contextual reasoning. To understand how each achieves novelty, we analyzed more than 5,000 responses to the Divergent Association Task from both humans and AI systems using network-based methods. We find that while individual humans use fewer and simpler conceptual categories than machines, the collective diversity of human ideas is substantially higher. Human creative pathways tend to follow a one-directional but highly unpredictable trajectory, whereas AI systems rely on repetitive, back-and-forth exploration patterns. Finally, both humans and machines show anchoring effects—early ideas shape later responses—but in opposite ways: humans anchor low, while machines anchor high.
Feihong Xu
PhD Candidate
Engineering Sciences & Applied Mathematics
McCormick School of Engineering
A Well-Calibrated Model Similarity Measure for Arbitrary Neural Networks
Deep learning approaches have transformed biological and biomedical image analysis, but model opacity and fragility remain major obstacles to trustworthy use. One barrier is the lack of a well-calibrated measure of similarity across arbitrary neural networks trained with different architectures, checkpoints, random initializations, and training strategies. Existing notions of model similarity span functional and representational domains, often rely on heuristic assumptions, and are susceptible to spurious signals introduced by probing samples, making principled cross-model meta-analysis difficult. Here, we clarify prevailing notions of deep neural network similarity and benchmark their robustness under extensive out-of-distribution perturbations. We then introduce the Ahmad RV coefficient on chain weight matrices (wARV), a theoretically grounded weight-space similarity measure that combines chain-normalized weights with the RV coefficient. wARV is sample-agnostic, symmetric, computationally efficient, and better calibrated than current measures. Across benchmarks varying random initialization, training checkpoint, architecture, and training strategy, wARV more faithfully tracks functional similarity while avoiding confounding effects from probing data. Applying wARV to deep neural network models on both generic and medical image classification tasks, we uncover substantial learning heterogeneity and instability even among models with similar predictive performance.
Maalvika Bhat
PhD Student
Technology and Social Behavior
School of Communication &
McCormick School of Engineering
Scholars See Clickbait as a Greater Threat to Science Than to Their Own Work
As scientific research competes for attention in a media landscape driven by sensationalism, the risks of misrepresentation grow. This study examines whether academics, while widely recognizing clickbait as a threat to science broadly, tend to downplay its relevance to their own work. Surveying 5,603 U.S.-based researchers, we find a consistent perception gap between systemic and personal risk, one that varies by career stage and disciplinary context. Early-career scholars show a pronounced version of this asymmetry: they express heightened concern about clickbait’s harms to science while rating its relevance to their own work as comparatively lower, a pattern that leaves them most exposed at a stage when reputational stakes are highest.
Rochana Chaturvedi
Postdoctoral Fellow
Kellogg School of Management &
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems
Who Gets the Callback? Generative Artificial Intelligence and Gender Bias
Large language models are increasingly embedded in hiring workflows, raising concerns about their potential to amplify societal biases — yet how these biases manifest within and across occupations, and the role of model 'personality' in shaping these biases, remains unexplored. We introduce a three-part attribution framework applied to 332,044 real-world job ads, measuring gender-based callback bias, associations of skills and traits with gendered stereotypes in LLMs, and the effect of simulated recruiter personas. We find that LLMs systematically favor men, especially in higher-wage roles, with their decisions tracking traditional gendered language cues in job postings. Notably, assigning a low-agreeableness persona reduces model bias, implicating sycophancy as a mechanism reinforcing societal stereotypes; at the same time, controversial personas trigger internal guardrails leading to more cautious and less-biased outputs. These findings highlight how alignment choices in AI-driven hiring systems shape bias, with important implications for fairness and diversity.
Location:
In person: Chambers Hall, 600 Foster Street, Lower Level
Remote option: https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/98031689779
About the Speaker Series:
Wednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems, networks, and artificial intelligence. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-between. Please visit: https://bit.ly/WedatNICO for information on future speakers.
Time
Wednesday, May 20, 2026 at 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Location
Lower Level, Chambers Hall Map
Contact
Calendar
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)